姓名：胡增运  职称：研究员  博士生导师

Title1 国家级青年人才

联系方式：

办公室地址：全球健康研究院

办公室电话：021-63846590-776995

邮箱：hzyhjq@sjtu.edu.cn

科研方向/主要研究内容/科研成果

胡增运本科、硕士、博士均毕业于应用数学专业，长期从事环境变化与人类健康交叉研究。主要研究内容：极端气候、遥感水文、自然灾害风险评估、传染病模型、传染病预测预警及风险评估、大数据、环境变化对人类健康影响等。截止目前，发表学术论文95篇，其中SCI期刊论文75篇，第一作者和通讯作者SCI论文45篇，三篇高被引，包括公卫、传染病、自然地理、应用数学等多个领域top 期刊。相关成果得到联合国跨政府气候变化专门委员会IPCC 报告和Nature等多个顶刊引用和高度评价。主持中组部等国家和省部级项目9项，参加973项目、中科院先导A、国家自然科学基金重点项目等超20项。

胡增运博士先后在河南省新蔡县第一高级中学、中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所、香港浸会大学地理系博士后工作。

2024年1月至今 上海交通大学医学院 研究员 博士生导师

社会/学术任职和活动

国际期刊任职

Atmosphere Editor

Acta Tropica Guest Editor

Frontiers in Environmental Science Associate Editor

Science in One Health Editor

主要学术创新

（1） 基于“大道至简”思想，以欧式距离为理论基础，原创性构建CCHZ-DISO评估系统，成功解决大数据和模型评估、排名和分类科学问题，可应用于多个学科；创建PTPLS时空大数据插值方法，为多个学科大数据时空插值提供新方法。

（2） 针对中亚地理环境变化及成因科学问题，申请人利用了多源数据不确定性分析方法，得到了过去百年中亚地理环境时空演变特征及影响机制早期工作, 为中亚地理环境变化机理研究提供重要科学基础。

（3） 解决一元三次方程根与1的关系，为三维离散传染病模型动力行为研究提供理论基础；创建了基于自然地理学、气象学、应用数学和传染病学等交叉学科的“传染病预测预警建模与防控新技术”；拓展传染病研究方向，实现“One Health”角度多学科交叉研究。

科研项目

项目编号	项目类型	项目名称	起止年月	备注
E3250301	中科院基础前沿 300万	中亚生态系统修复与保护	2023.1-2025.12	项目负责人
ANSO-CR-KP-2021-02	“一带一路”国际科学组织联盟项目	哈国与巴基斯坦新冠肺炎疫情防控研究	2022.1-2024.12	课题负责人
E1190301	国家级青年人才项目	环境变化与人类健康	2021.1-2023.12	项目负责人
E116030701	新疆第三次科考	科考数据挖掘与分析	2021.12-2025.12	子课题负责人
42361144887	国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目 直接经费 200万	中亚干旱区生态系统退化机理与可持续发展研究	2024.1-2026.12	项目骨干 排名第二
42230708	国家自然科学基金重点项目 直接经费 273万	近30年咸海萎缩成因及其生态效应研究	2023.1-2027.12	项目骨干 排名第二
2022TSYCLJ0056	新疆自治区天山英才项目 经费600万	亚欧内陆干旱区生态与环境多学科交叉研究	2023.1-2027.1	项目骨干 排名第二
11401569	国家自然科学基金青年基金	气候变化影响下的天山巴音布鲁克草原牲畜规模动态研究	2015.01-2017.12	项目负责人
2020-XBQNXZ-010	中科院西部青年学者项目	全球增温背景下中亚干旱区陆地水储量评估	2021.01-2023.12	项目负责人

代表性论文

原创性论文：

1. Hu, Z., Chen, D., Chen, X., Zhou, Q., Peng, Y., Li, J., Sang, Y., 2022, CCHZ-DISO: A Timely New Assessment System for data quality or model performance from Da Dao Zhi Jian, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100681.

2. Zhou, Q., Chen, D., Hu, Z*., Chen, X*, 2021, Decompositions of Taylor diagram and DISO performance criteria, International Journal of Climatology, 41 (12), 5726-5732. 高被引

3. Hu, Z., Chen, X., Zhou, Q., Chen, D., Li, J., 2019, DISO: A rethink of Taylor diagram, International Journal of Climatology, 39, 2825-2832

4. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Jiang, H., 2012, Stability analysis in a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Application, 13, 2017-2033高被引.

5. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Zhang, T., Zhou, Q., Chen, X., 2017, Globally asymptotically stable analysis in a discrete time eco-epidemiological system, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 99, 20-31

6. Hu, Z., Hu, Q., Zhang, C., Chen, X., Li, Q., 2016, Evaluation of reanalysis, spatially interpolated and satellite remotely sensed precipitation data sets in central Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 5648-5663

环境变化论文：

1. Hu, Z., Chen, D., Chen, X., 2022, CCHZ-DISO: A Timely New Assessment System for data quality or model performance from Da Dao Zhi Jian, Geophysical Research Letters, 49, e2022GL100681.

2. Hu, Z., Chen, X., Zhou, Q., Yin, G., Liu, J., 2022, Dynamical variations of the terrestrial water cycle components and the influences of the climate factors over the Aral Sea Basin through multiple datasets, Journal of Hydrology, 604: 127270.

3. Zhou, Q., Huang, J., Hu, Z*., Yin, G., 2022, Spatial-temporal changes to GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage in response to climate change in arid Northwest China, Hydrological Sciences Journal-Journal Des Sciences Hydrologiques, 67(4): 535-549.

4. Hu, Z., Zhang, Z., Sang, Y., Qian, J., Feng, W., Chen, X., Zhou, Q., 2021, Temporal and spatial variations in the terrestrial water storage across Central Asia based on multiple satellite datasets and global hydrological models, Journal of Hydrology, 596, 126013.

5. Zhou, Q., Chen, D., Hu, Z*., Chen, X*, 2021, Decompositions of Taylor diagram and DISO performance criteria, International Journal of Climatology, 41 (12), 5726-5732.

6. Hu, Z., Chen, X., Zhou, Q., Chen, D., Li, J., 2019, DISO: A rethink of Taylor diagram, International Journal of Climatology, 39, 2825-2832.

7. Hu, Z., Chen, X., Chen, D., Li, j., Wang, S., Zhou, Q., Yin, G., Guo, M., 2019, “Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter”: A case study over the arid regions of central Asia, International Journal of Climatology, 39, 1072-1091.

8. Hu, Z., Zhou, Q., Chen, X., Li, J., Li, Q., Chen, D., Liu, W., Yin, G., 2018, Evaluation of three global gridded precipitation data sets in central Asia based on rain gauge observations, International Journal of Climatology, 9, 3475-3493.

9. Hu, Z., Zhou, Q., Chen, X., Qian, C., Wang, S., Li, J., 2017, Variations and changes of annual precipitation in Central Asia over the last century.  International Journal of Climatology, 37,157-170.

10. Hu, Z., Hu, Q., Zhang, C., Chen, X., Li, Q., 2016, Evaluation of reanalysis, spatially interpolated and satellite remotely sensed precipitation data sets in central Asia. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 5648-5663.

11. Hu, Z., Zhang, C., Hu, Q., Tian, H., 2014, Temperature Changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets. Journal of Climate, 27, 1143-1167高被引.

传染病论文：

1. Cui, Q., Shi, Z., Hu, Z., Yimamaidi, Z., Hu, B., Zhang, Z., Saqib, M., Zohaib, A., Gulnara , B., Yersyn, M., Lil, S., 2023, Dynamical variations of the COVID-19 with the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron of Kazakhstan and Pakistan. Infectious Diseases of Poverty. 12: 18.

2. Wang, X., Yin, G., Hu, Z*., He, D., Cui, Q., Feng, X., Teng, Z., Hu, Q., Li, J., Zhou, Q., 2021, Dynamical variations of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic based on a SEICR disease model: a new approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu, GeoHealth, 5, 2021GH000455.

3. Cui, Q., Hu, Z(共一)., Han, J., Li, Y., Han, J., Teng, Z., Qian, J., 2020, Dynamic variations of the COVID-19 disease at different quarantine strategies in Wuhan and mainland China, Journal of Infection and Public Health, 13, 849-855.

4. Hu, Z., Cui, Q., Han, J., Wang, X., Sha, W., Teng, Z., 2020, Evaluation and prediction of the COVID-19 variations at different input population and quarantine strategies, a case study in Guangdong province, China, International Journal of Infectious Disease, 95, 231-240.

5. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Zhang, T., Zhou, Q., Chen, X., 2017，Globally asymptotically stable analysis in a discrete time eco-epidemiological system, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 99, 20-31.

6. Hu, Z., Chang, L., Teng, Z., 2016, Bifurcation analysis of a discrete SIRS epidemic model with standard incidence rate. Advances in Difference Equations, 2016:155.

7. Hu, Z.*, Teng, Z., Jia, C., Zhang, C., Zhang, L., 2014, Dynamical analysis and chaos control of a discrete SIS epidemic model, Advances in Difference Equations, 2014:58.

8. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Zhang, L., 2014, Stability and bifurcation analysis in a discrete SIR epidemic model. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 97, 80-93.

9. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Jiang, H., 2012, Stability analysis in a class of discrete SIRS epidemic models. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Application, 13, 2017-2033高被引.

10. Hu, Z., Teng, Z., Zhang, L., 2011, Stability and bifurcation analysis of a discrete predator-prey model with nonmonotonic functional response. Nonlinear Analysis: Real World Applications, 12, 2356-2377.

小组成员（PI填写）

自然地理：刘军教授（湖南中医药大学）、殷刚副教授（新疆大学）；硕士生：张浩，张卓，毛敏，王美君

传染病预警预测及动力学模型：崔倩倩副教授（宁夏大学）；硕士生：贺艺玮，张盼盼

本团队长期招收环境变化与人类健康方面副研究员、助理研究员、博士后、博士生和硕士生，欢迎大家加盟。简历发送: hzyhjq@sjtu.edu.cn

英文：

Name：Zengyun Hu

Degree：Ph.D

Email Address: hzyhjq@sjtu.edu.cn

Office Address: 227 South Chongqing Road, Shanghai, China

Office Tel: 021-776975

Education：

September 2003 – July 2007 Bachelor of Applied Mathematics, Xinyang Normal University

September 2008 – June 2011 Master of Applied Mathematics, Xinjiang University

September 2011 – June 2014 Doctor of Applied Mathematics, Xinjiang University

Appointments：

July 2007 - June 2008 High School Mathematics Teacher, Xinchai No.1 High School, Xinchai County, Henan Province

July 2011 - June 2014 Research Intern, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

July 2014 - November 2015 Assistant Researcher, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

December 2015 - December 2018 Postdoctoral Fellow, Department of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University

January 2019 - December 2021 Associate Researcher, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

January 2022 - December 2023 Researcher, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences

From January 2024 to present Researcher and Doctoral Supervisor, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Academic Participation and Activities：

Atmosphere Editor

Acta Tropica Guest Editor

Frontiers in Environmental Science Associate Editor

Science in One Health Editor

Research Area：

Environment change and human health;

Research Interest：

Extreme Climate, Remote Sensing Hydrology, Disease Models, Infectious disease forecasting and early warning, Risk assessment modeling, Artificial Intelligence, big data, and the impact of environmental changes on human health.